Sunday, November 28, 2010

1000 Ways to Think About Decisions- Analyze This

Should I buy an HP, IBM, Dell or ACER? When seeking out a mini-laptop as a trusty note-taking device, I was sure I wanted an Acer. However, I was only sold on Acer because it was the only mini-laptop I knew existed. Once at Best Buy, I was clearly wrong. Surrounded also by IBM, HP, and Dell, I was faced with a decision. I ultimately ended up with the HP, but my decision was not based on superior technical ability, battery life, memory, or anything that perhaps someone more computer-savvy may have considered. Instead, my decision was solely based on HP’s color option. Pink plaid with matching case? SOLD.
So what drives our decisions? The decision making process is complex and usually relies on a healthy combination of gut feeling and knowledge. Regarding products and consumer choice, though, decisions rest more on knowledge than perhaps conceived. This is a result of data analysis, which impacts our decision making whether we like it or not.
What exactly is data analysis? Data analysis is a spread of information analyzed to come to a conclusion about a product. Is it good? Do we like it? Do we need it? Thanks to data analysis, predictions on these answers can fairly accurately be made.
In the case of Dr. Howard Moskowitz, the product was tomato sauce. Moskowitz was involved in seeking out the ‘perfect’ sauce. To do so, he polled America with 45 varieties of sauce. Once the data was analyzed, he found three major preference groups: plain, spicy, and chunky, chunky holding majority rule. Prego got hold of this information, and appalled that chunky-sauce-lovers were not being serviced, emerged on the market with Prego chunky sauce. The decision to do so was based on data analysis, and $600,000,000 later, I’d say this was a good decision.
With that in mind, does data analysis change our preconceived notions of how the world works? I’d say yes. Data gives us choices, which many times exceed our expectations. Did America ever fathom that tomato sauce could be anything other than just tomato sauce? No. The result of data impacted the product design, giving people the option to decide. Chunky sauce for all!
Decisions are, after all, only possible when options are available. Look at the magazine Consumer Reports. This magazine chronicles a tremendous amount of products, providing detailed information comparing price, quality, durability, consumer preference, etc. Data has absolutely changed the way we perceive the world works. It brings awareness to options and information that previously we may have overlooked. We live in a society that craves information; we love to weigh our options. We love to predict our outcomes.
But what happens when data gets complicated? We can’t possible analyze every product and every decision. What if the numbers are manipulated? Data analysis absolutely influences our decisions, but like everything else, we have to know when to take information with a grain of salt. We can look to data for information, but we can’t ignore the gut feeling that has fueled our decisions for years.
 I chose my HP based on color. Somewhere along the line, data was analyzed as to what consumer’s preferences may be. For some, it may be battery life, but for me it was color. I certainly had the option to consult data if I so had chosen, but instead I relied on my trusty gut feeling. I like pink plaid, so I liked the HP. Data analysis influences us, and at times is helpful, informative, and verifies the outcome of our decision. This is good, but at the end of the day we need to remember that we our human, and no amount of numbers, statistics or information, can replace the emotional response so pertinent to the decision making process. Perhaps data analysis can eliminate a lot of mistakes, but to me, this would take something precious away from our nature as humans.
Either way, data analysis influences us. Take it, or leave it- the choice is yours.

Mallory.

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